Wayne Dam
is Senior Products Actuary of the Life and Health section of Swiss Re, a
multinational company. The ‘Re’ stands for reinsurance: the company insures
insurance companies, which also means they have a role in establishing pricing
and availability for the whole market.
Dam says:
“In life insurance, the risks you are insuring against have usually been fairly
predictable, unlike other types of risk like natural disaster or economic
collapse. People die at a fairly predictable rate and we know how life
expectancy changes with age and which groups tend to die younger.” In general,
for instance, people’s annual risk of dying increases in a predictable manner
as they age: at 40 you only have a 0.2% risk of dying in the next year, by 65
that risk has increased to 1.5% and by the age of 90, for those still alive,
it’s 16%.1
These
calculations go awry, however, if life expectancy changes with time. “For
someone to be insurable the loss insured against has to be genuine: it must be
due to bad luck, not human interference; it must be significant, a real loss;
and it must be predictable.” HIV, he adds, blew predictability out of the water
in two ways: firstly, in the 1980s-90s, by sharply increasing the proportion of
people dying early due to infectious disease (even in rich countries) and then
a decade later when, due to HIV treatment, the death rate started falling in
people with HIV and (in some sub-groups within the HIV-positive population)
approaching normality.
Many of the
life expectancy data featured in a piece HTU
ran in April 2010 (see How long have I got, doc? in HTU 195). There have been few big life
expectancy studies since then.
One cohort
of HIV-positive people in the UK, the UK CHIC group, published new life
expectancy data in October 2011.2 Among this group of over 35,000
patients, surveyed from 1996 to 2008, 1248 people died out of a total of 91,203
patient-years of data collected. That’s an annual mortality rate of 1.4%. The
life expectancy at age 20 – how many more years someone in the group could
expect to survive – was 40 in men and 50 in women, compared with 58 and 62 in
men and women respectively in the general population – deficits of 18 and 12
years respectively. Life expectancy improved considerably over the study
period, especially in women. In 2006 to 2008, annual mortality was 0.95% and
life expectancy at age 20 had risen from 30 years in 1996-98 to 46 years (56
years in women).
Late
diagnosis contributed a huge amount to mortality: most of the risk of dying in
people with HIV, at least until they get old, is concentrated into the first
year after diagnosis. Life expectancy at age 20 in people diagnosed with a CD4
count of less than 100 cells/mm3 was 38 years, compared with 53
years in people diagnosed with a CD4 count between 200 and 350 cells/mm3
(people starting treatment with CD4 counts over 350 cells/mm3 were
excluded from the study). In this group, life expectancy tended to approach
normality with age; as people got older and survived, their continued survival
approached that of the general population, whereas in people diagnosed with
less than 200 cells/mm3, the risk of dying continued to be elevated.
As we found
in How long have I got, doc?
certain groups of people with HIV have near-normal life expectancy: people
diagnosed early; those maintaining high CD4 counts; and people diagnosed in
recent years.
Contrary to
expectations, older people also have less risk, relative to others of their own
age. People with HIV who are 25 are more than twice as likely to die within the
next year as HIV-negative 25-year olds: HIV-positive 65-year olds, conversely,
are only 14% more likely to die than their HIV-negative contemporaries. This is
due to two things: firstly, since most of the excess mortality is concentrated
into the first year or two after diagnosis, the longer you survive with HIV the
longer you’re likely to survive and secondly, older people have better adherence
to medications.
Specific
groups of people with HIV are now relatively ‘insurable’. The risk of dying in
any one year is still roughly twice what it is in the general population, but
this is similar to smokers, people with diabetes and people who have been
successfully treated for cancer, all of whom can get life insurance.
Wayne Dam
says that continued uncertainties tend to make companies wary of offering more
than relatively short-term, low-payout life insurance for people with HIV. We
don’t know if the improvement in life expectancy in people with HIV will
continue; improvements in drug regimens may not continue; late diagnosis and
the long-term impact of HIV infection and treatment may continue to raise
mortality.
Perhaps
companies should not be so cautious. There’s one country in the world where 18%
of the population has HIV and collectively they own 39 million US dollars’
worth of life insurance: South
Africa. That’s one in every two
dollars’-worth of life insurance for someone in the world with HIV. The South
African government instructed companies to make life insurance available as a
general way of reducing the burden that early death from HIV was imposing on
the population, and realised it would only work if it was available to everyone,
regardless of HIV status, in order to avoid the ‘those that need it most get it
least’ factor.
This is
nothing unusual in some countries that have an insurance-based healthcare
system, such as France:
the burden is spread so that the sickest people get coverage. Even in the US, as long as
you’re in work and can afford the huge salary slice that health insurance
costs, having HIV does not exclude you. Simply barring a defined group of
people from coverage is generally used as a last resort by insurance companies,
who would rather take your money if they can calculate your risk.
Such a
model could not apply in countries where people need considerably higher sums
insured than in South Africa
and where, unlike the US,
there is no state interest in making companies offer insurance. A market like
the UK’s
leaves companies free to apply outdated knowledge to people whose risks may be
changing for the better.
Even
outside HIV, statisticians and actuaries have consistently underestimated the
improvements in life expectancy that have in fact taken place in the last
half-century. In 1971, a paper by Swiss Re reveals,3 statisticians
estimated that by 2007 average life expectancy in the UK would have increased from 69.2
to 70.4 years. In fact it was 77.2 years – and has grown another year since
then.